Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Yes, temperatures cooled since 1998. No, that doesn't refute global warming

PhysOrg -Global warming 'pause' since 1998 reflects natural fluctuation, study concludes

A recent study applied a long-term statistical model to historical sampling from pre-industrial sources like tree rings, ice cores, and lake sediment to show that there are regular fluctuations in average climate temperature every 20-50 years seemingly independent of human activity. The period of slight cooling from 1998-2013 (that has befuddled some models that predict constant global warming) can therefore be placed into a larger context of periods of fluctuation that the earth undergoes. The study also pointed out that between 1992-1998 there was a more rapid increase in global temperature than the global warming models predicted as well. It seems the study used some sort of long-term statistical model that accommodates periods of alternating heating and cooling, but on an order of magnitude far below the historical increases in average temperature. This combined with a previous study that concluded, with 99% certainty, that the warming in global temperatures from 1880 onwards are too large to be a result of "natural fluctuations" in the earth's temperature.

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