Macro-forecasting rarely beats chance, and does worse using ideology

Wired.com - Do political experts know what they're talking about?
see also:
WSJ - Beware our blind seers
and:
Daily Beast - Why pundits get things wrong

This is an examination of the work of a social scientist who has made a career of studying pundits and their predictive ability. Philip Tetlock has given over 280 experts in the field of political or economic trends scores of questions, asking them to predict future events over 20 years. The average result was worse than chance. Even more interestingly, those who did better than their peers tended to have a messier, flexible, inductive style of prediction. The worst performers seemed be classifiable as experts with a particular lens or ideology, using one or a few "Big Ideas" about politics, economics, or human nature to make predictions about specific events. Those types of thinkers ("hedgehogs") also appeared more confident and more self-assured in their presentations of their predictions. The "foxes" couched their conclusions more tentatively and could be prone to seemingly contradictory opinions, but tended to perform better. Even better than both: mathematical models (see last bit of last article).

During ovulation, women unconsciously compete

ScienceDaily - Ovulating women unconsciously buy sexier clothing to outdo attractive women

This study primarily was focused on buying habits of women during ovulation, and seemed to be commissioned for commercial purposes. Despite this, the results were interesting: researchers showed women pictures of other women, some who looked average and some who were unattractive, and told them that they lived either nearby or 1000 miles away. Then they asked non-ovulating women and ovulating women to pick out clothing they would be interested in buying. Ovulating women who saw the pictures of average local women picked sexier products than all other groups, including ovulating women who thought the women lived far away. Yet, ovulating women who saw unattractive pictures of local women did not opt for sexier fashions. Researchers concluded that ovulating women were unconsciously competing with their perceived local competitors.

Gut bacteria important for digestion and also avoiding disease

US News & World Report - Gut bacteria reflect dietary differences 

Scientists studied the two groups of children, those from a western, developed nation (Italy), and those from a 3rd-world African country (Burkina Faso). Scientists looked at diet, as well as the microbes and bacteria in the guts of the children. During breast feeding, the children's guts looked similar, but as the diets diverged, changes in gut flora began. In the rural, 3rd-world country where  the diet was mostly legumes, vegetables and grains (and little animal protein or fats), the children's guts contained greater floral diversity, increased bacteria that digested fiber, including some bacteria that termites share. The conjecture is that these bacteria provide for greater digestion of plant fibers. The Burkina Faso children also had less diarrhea-causing bacteria, even though they drink water more likely to be contaminated with it. The conclusion is that gut microbes and bacteria can be acquired through diet, that many have been lost in the western diet, and that it such bacteria are not just influential on energy and digestion but also on the immune system.

Sleep aids in weight loss, especially loss of fat

Scientific American Blog - Sleep might help dieters shed more fat

This study adds to the salubrious effects of getting enough sleep by showing the kind of weight lost by dieters. Researchers compared the same dieters who got a full night's sleep (7.5 hrs) compared to a truncated sleep schedule (5.5 hrs). The diet was reduced caloric intake that wasn't coupled with exercise. While the dieters lost the same amount of weight under both regimens, those with a full night's sleep lost 55% more fat than the others. The shortened sleep schedule group lost more "fat-free body mass", including water and muscle, and also reported being hungry more of the time. Researchers looked for a hormone ghrelin that supposedly stimulates hunger and also lowers energy use in the body (influencing metabolism) and found that in the sleep-deprived, ghrelin levels were higher. If it hadn't been for the tight caloric controls imposed by the study, the sleep-deprived might have eaten more and not even lost the weight they did.

Men have higher threshold for offense than women

Live Science - Study reveals why women apologize so much

In a series of small studies, conducted only with university students, researchers found that both men and women (self-reportedly) apologize about equally when they recognize that they've done something wrong. Further, in a subsequent study, men (self-) reported taking less offense, or thinking an offense was less significant, than women did regarding the same action. The first study found that women did apologize more, and (self-) reported committing more offenses than men did. (Most of these studies were conducted over a ~2 week period, asking subjects to keep diaries.) With the two studies taken together, researchers speculate that women apologize more because they are more sensitive to offenses than men are. Men may have a higher tolerance for some offensive actions, and thus do not see them as offensive and do not believe an apology is warranted.

Action video games improve rapid judgments

PhysOrg - Video games lead to faster decisions that are no less accurate

Researchers found18-25 year-olds who don't normally play video games for a study. One set was given fast-paced shooter-type games to play, including Call of Duty 2. The other group got a slow-moving "strategy" video game, The Sims. After 50 hours of game-play, both groups were given visual and auditory tasks that seem to be about separating information from noise and making "probabilistic inference": for instance, seeing a set of erratic dots move on a screen and having to judge if they were, on average, moving in a particular direction. Those who played the action-type video games made the judgments 25% faster and were no less accurate. Researchers speculate that quick-paced action video games (and, by extension, lives with lots of action in them) increase one's ability to take in bits of information and make rapid probabilistic inferences.

Books in the house predict greater educational advancement in children

Live Science - Growing up with books boosts child's educational attainment

After examining census data across multiple countries and controlling for a variety of other factors, such as: country, political system, GDP, father's occupation, and father's level of educational attainment, researchers found that having more books in the house predicts greater advancement in a child's education. Across 27 countries, the average difference between households with 500+ books compared to 1 was 3.2 years. The report suggested that even 20 books increased educational advancement over a household with 1 or none.

Earthworms feed on living plants

BBC - Earthworms eat live seeds and plants, scientists find

Earthworms have long been assumed to be a farmer/gardener's friend, recycling soil with nutrients. However, when scientists gave a genus of earthworm, Lumbricus terrestris, the opportunity to eat slow-germinating, nitrogen-rich seeds and young plants, the worms not only did so but gained mass. Scientists tested for nitrogen isotope levels in the worms offered the variety of foods, and found that the worms opted for the legumes (seeds) over grasses, as evidenced by a lower level of a nitrogen isotope commonly found in the seeds. This indicated a preference for eating seeds and young plants over grasses. While the nutrient production of earthworms is still important, the predatory nature of worms may affect farms and gardens.

Racial bias plays a part in sympathetic response

Science Daily - Racial bias clouds ability to feel others' pain, study shows

Researchers showed videos of variously colored hands getting injured, and measured the viewers' physiological sympathetic responses. It was assumed that the populations measured, black Africans and white Italians, would have racial biases. When videos that showed hands of the same race as the viewer were  pricked with a needle, a "sensorimotor response" arose in the viewer. However, when the viewer saw the other race's hand pricked, the response did not arise (or was diminished?). Interestingly, when viewers saw the injury done to a hand that was differently colored but not racially-charged (in other words, a neutral stranger, with a purple hand), the sympathetic response did occur. Thus the baseline response was concluded to exist, unless the viewer had specific racial bias. The conclusion is that specific racial bias plays a part in the sympathetic response toward others' pain.

Money can dampen pleasures from the little things

Discover Magazine - Money weakens ability to savor life's little pleasures

A series of experiments reveal that people who have more wealth correlate to a lower ability or willingness to savor more mundane experiences. A study asked people to imagine themselves in a myriad of situations and (self-) report how they'd feel while in them. Many of these were small-scale accomplishments or mundane positive experiences. Those who (self-) reported more wealth also showed less ability to savor the positive emotions brought on by the imagined situations.

In another test, college students were asked to look at a picture of money (or a neutral object), and then eat a chocolate bar. A (double-?)blind third party then judged how much the students enjoyed the chocolate given how quickly they ate it, and other cues. The students who looked at the stack of money ate the chocolate more quickly and were reported to enjoy it ~1/3rd less. [Is this due to fetishizing money and therefore chocolate seems less important when compared to it?]

Acupuncture may have a physiological mechanism

Nature - Acupuncture for mice

This study reports on the following experiment: give mice pain in a specific area, then treat that area with acupuncture. After an hour, test their level of pain, and then monitor a specific level of adenosine in the mice. Adenosine is a "neuromodulator" whose receptors act to dull pain and is commonly produced when tissue is damaged. The results of the experiment were that mice treated with acupuncture had increased adenosine and less pain than the control. There was no effect when acupuncture was applied to pain-free sites. One scientist who studies adenosine pointed out that caffeine can block adenosine receptors, thus possibly confounding studies on humans when they also ingest caffeine.

Gendered names correlate with differences in behavior

LiveScience - Good or bad, baby names correlate with long-lasting effects

This reports on ongoing work, and also references numerous studies showing the correlation between a person's name and developmental and behavioral differences. The centerpiece study analyzed English-speaking names according to phonemes and related their combinations to the predictability of belonging to a boy or girl. The idea here is that certain phonetic combinations are considered (historically) more or less feminine or masculine. Those that were more feminine in boys correlated with disciplinary problems in starting in middle school. Those that were more feminine in girls correlated with more coursework in humanities, rather than in math and science for girls with more masculine names.

Another use for this phonetic analysis is finding a correlation between names and perceived socio-economic status. In other words, names more likely to be given by parents in a lower class correlated with poorer performance in school, even if the named child isn't from that class. (In this part of the study, only less common names were studied). Interestingly as well, "preliminary" work on novel spellings of names show that children with those names learn to read and spell slower.

Center of gravity, not race, key to speed

Science Daily - For speediest athletes, it's all in the center of gravity

Researchers performed an analysis of the fastest swimmers and runners of the past century and concluded there are a multitude of factors that make up success in competition. Some of the factors include access, nutrition, social encouragement, body length, and size (muscle mass). But a significant factor often considered-- race-- is not a factor when a more explanatory alternative, center-of-gravity, is considered. Athletes with a higher center of gravity tend to excel at running since their limbs fall further (therefore faster due to gravity being an acceleration). Swimmers, on the other hand, benefit from longer torsos, which coincidentally lowers the center-of-gravity. While there are geographic and genetic origins to who has higher and lower centers-of-gravity, body structure is more explanatory than race. One of the scientists has a wide-ranging theory explaining this, called the constructal theory.

Sitting more correlates to shorter life

USA Today - Study: the longer you sit, the shorter your life

In a longitudinal study that seemed to piggy-back on efforts from the American Cancer Society, over 120,000 people self-reported lifestyle, medical conditions, etc. Researchers tried to control for obesity and daily physical exercise and even after that found that sitting more than 6 hours per day increased the likelihood of an early death versus those who sit less than 3 hours/day. The effect was greater for women than for men. Researchers speculate that when sitting, hormones in the legs are released that affect triglycerides and cholesterol.

Preschool provides behavioral advantages

Wired - How Preschool Changes the Brain

This article is a short review of a meta-study conducted by researchers at UPenn and Chicago. The study compiled information from other studies on early childhood education and concluded that it is a worthy public investment. One study highlighted by the article showed a long-term reduction in arrests and an increase in high-school graduation rates. The benefits of preschool aren't necessarily related to intelligence: with IQ the boost from preschool can dissipate, (in other cases it lasted, depending on the program). Instead, preschool helped children (and later adults) with more behavioral traits like self-control, persistence, and "grit". These abilities arguably helped students graduate high school and be more capable in society. The economists who did this meta-study concluded that for ever $1 spent in preschool, the public gets or saves $8-9.

BPA all over thermal receipts from retailers

New York Times Green Blog - Check your receipt: it may be tainted

Bisphenol-A (BPA) is a chemical used in plastic containers and the lining of food cans. It is a correlation to animal maladies and seems to disrupt endocrine functions. In this study, scientists collected the thermal receipts given by stores when a product is purchased. Thermal receipts work by heating the areas that need to be printed; the dye that coats the paper reacts to the heat (boils) and, through a chemical reaction, changes color. So that print can be applied anywhere on the paper, the dye used for the paper covers the entire paper. BPA is used in creating the dye, so it covers the paper as well. The chemical alone can account for up to 3% of the receipts' weight.

Researchers found that 100% of all store receipts sampled in the US had BPA in them. The next highest risk were tickets, newspapers and store flyers. Especially troubling is that this paper is often recycled and can get into recycled paper products like toilet paper, envelopes or regular paper. Previous studies showed that roughly 1/4 of all BPA that is on human skin penetrates it and enters the bloodstream within 2 hours.

Physical reactions to evocative images predict political participation

New Scientist - Sweaty palms and puppy love: the physiology of voting

Scientists showed (only) 51 subjects a series of pictures, some of which are known to evoke an "autonomic sweat response", among these: pictures of puppies, sunsets, fighting/violence, or vomit. Scientists monitored the level of sweat these subjects exuded; presumably sweat is linked to their emotive responses to the pictures. Separately, the subjects were asked questions about their level of political participation: voting habits and whether they had ever contacted public officials. There was a correlation between more sweating and political participation. The suggestion is that people who have more physical responses to world events are more likely to participate in politics. It also suggests that evocative images will elicit higher levels of political activity.