Friday, August 29, 2014

No realistic economic model predicted Bush's tax cuts would "pay for themselves"

Free Republic - 'Dynamic' Scoring Finally ends Debate on Taxes, Revenue
(As published by Alan Murray in the Wall Street Journal)

 This piece published back in 2003 reviews how a Republican economist working at the White House was given the directorship of the Congressional Budged Office, a non-partisan bureau. While there, he used a new method called "Dynamic Scoring", rather than the standard "Static" method, to assess the effects of the GW Bush tax cuts under EGTRRA. The static method apparently assumes that raising taxes has no effect on economic growth, while the dynamic one takes into account various assumptions about the effects that changes in the tax code will have on economic growth, the budget deficit, and so on. The dynamic scoring method was undertaken on the Bush tax cuts and showed that this method also does not come close to providing evidence that tax cuts provide enough increases in taxable income to balance out the loss of government revenues. Under one set of assumptions, the budget deficit actually did decrease. The assumptions were as follows:
1. Taxes revert back to their pre-EGTRRA rates in 2013 (as scheduled)
2. People realize this and increase their incomes as much as possible prior to 2013
Dynamic scoring, like static scoring, finds that tax cuts have yet to provide enough economic stimulation to increase government revenue.

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